The Affordability And Efficiency Of Solar Energy Environmental Sciences Essay

Energy is known as the foundation of all resources that plays an of import function in modern society. Our day-to-day life activities in place, office and transport all depended on the changeless and dependable supply of energy. Most of the coevals of energy in our modernised society is chiefly from the non-renewable resources like fossil fuels and atomic power. These beginnings are called non-renewable resources for the ground that they can non be replenish or reproduced in a comparatively short sum of clip. Fossil fuel is the most common non-renewable energy used due to the fact that atomic power is high radioactive in conformity with many negative consequence. However, fossil fuels are consuming at a steep rate because of the high demand. The development of fossil fuels besides brings menaces to the planetary universe. Carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) is the by-product of firing dodo fuels which is the nursery gas lending to the planetary heating. In add-on, firing fossil fuels besides outp uts sulphur dioxide that leads to acid rain. Extraction of coal, oil and natural gas will besides present a great impact on the natural ecosystem for illustration oil spills and landslides. A solution for all of these jobs is to happen a new alternate energy resource or renewable energy resources. Renewable energy is preferred over non-renewable energy because it produces non-polluting, clean and unlimited energy supply to our local demands. In future, the use of renewable energy resources is set to lift in a big graduated table because of deficient supplies of fossil fuels and besides because of authorities policy and plans to back up renewable energy coevals Solar, biomass, hydropower, geothermic and air current are list of renewable energy deriving a fast development in many states worldwide. Among these energy resources, solar is known best for its emerging turning patterned advance in the universe because itaa‚Â ¬a„?s more dependable, low-cost and efficient.1.2 Overview of Photovoltaic ( PV )Solar Photovoltaic is one of the fastest turning energy engineerings, with growing by an mean 30 % per annum over the past 20 old ages against a background of quic kly worsening costs and monetary values. In 2009, the photovoltaic solar industry generated $ 38.5 billion in grosss globally and PV installings grew to 7.3 GW in 2009, up 20 % from the anterior twelvemonth [ 1 ] ( Fig. 1.1 ) .Figure 1.1: PV Market Size in cleavage by application ( GW )Photovoltaic ( PV ) generates electric energy from solar from solar cells packaged in photovoltaic faculties. These faculties are usually connected in multiple of PV arrays to bring forth more energy from Sun. Inside the PV array, solar power will be produced because of the mechanism which the photons from sunlight collide the negatrons in PV cell into a higher province of energy, therefore bring forthing electricity when negatrons flow. The photovoltaic term implies that impersonal operation part of a photodiode in which current through the device is wholly due to the transduced visible radiation energy. Direct current is generated with the presence of Sun visible radiation at the solar cell, this en ergy can be used to power up devices or equipment, charge a battery cell or solar hot H2O system. The promotion and increased execution of PV system in many applications can function to better the worldaa‚Â ¬a„?s energy options. Solar power is so the cleanest methods of energy production known with no harmful by-products or menaces to the environment. However, there are few jobs with solar power in power transition facets. There is a demand of efficient convertor to change over the DC current to AC supplies for users of energy that wanted high-current low-tension AC current in order to ease energy usage. Furthermore, the current engineering of solar panel claims to be merely 40 % efficiency which is non perfect in energy transition. Solar cell has a nonlinear current-voltage operating point where the maximal power point ( MPP ) which varies depending on the PV cell temperature and the solar sunstroke degree. The location of MPPT is non known ab initio. However, it can be traced either through computation method or seeking algorithms. So, in order to maximise the power extracted from the PV for solar efficiency betterment, a maximal power point tracker ( MPPT ) is required to reassign the power to the burden. MPPT will be responsible to happen the electromotive force or current at which the solar panel should run to pull out the maximal end product power under a given temperature and irradiance.1.2 Undertaking MotivationSolar power system offers the undermentioned advantages of: environmental friendly, clean, low care fee, and a long life-time. Due to these benefits, the solar energy is one of the fastest turning market globally. Nevertheless, PV system is still considered to be expensive, and the decrease in PV system cost involve extensive of research and development. In power electronics field, the efficiency can be improved by maximising the energy end product of PV array. There is a demand of MPPT control in order for the PV array to run at the optimal point in assorted environmental conditions. Many methods have been developed to better the maximal power end product extracted from the PV faculties. They can be sorted out as mathematic theoretical accounts to do approximated descri ptions of the PV faculties behavior, plan the algorithms based on the theoretical accounts, and standard trial of PV system to plan the trailing faculty. These methods have been tested with simulations and consequences approximate the public presentation in existent environment. However, some proposed methods consist of really complex construction or algorithm which makes the calculation procedure to be slow or expensive. Apart from the assorted invented method for MPPT PV system, Perturbation and Observation algorithm ( P & A ; O ) is the most common method used in market because of its simpleness and easiness of execution. With the rapid growing in solar industry an tremendous figure of PV panels are runing today for the whole universe. With the increasing of figure panels and life-time, the insuring of optimum operating conditions is going more of import, in order to minimise the power losingss. This creates the new challenge of public presentation observation and analysis for PV faculties.1.3 Undertaking AimsThe chief aims of the undertaking are: To plan a MPPT Solar Charge Controller to maximise the power extracted from PV system. To implement the MPPT algorithm controlled by microcontroller. The microcontroller is responsible in changing the responsibility rhythm of convertor to coerce the PV array operate in optimal point To analyse the public presentation of MPPT accountant with the algorithm chosen. MPPT Solar Charge Controller that developed must be low cost, dependable and stable in public presentation for existent environment application.1.4 Scopes of ProjectThis undertaking involves execution of hardware and package for planing a Solar Charge Controller that will tracks the maximal power point for PV cell in order to alter a rechargeable lead-acid battery in shortest clip. Choice of DC-DC convertor based on the desired end product electromotive force to bear down a battery through MPPT Solar Charge Controller. Buck Converter will be used in this undertaking development. The power MOSFET in vaulting horse convertor acts as a switch in the power supply component because it can defy high electromotive force and current. The c2000 household Texas Instrument DSP microcontroller will be commanding the vaulting horse convertor by directing PWM signal to power MOSFET after the computational work has done. The simulation of MPPT algorithm through MATLAB SIMULINK MPPT algorithm will be develop on MATLAB and the public presentation will be stimulate and analyze. MATLAB contains Target Support Package for c2000 Texas Instrument Microcontroller, therefore the developed MPPT algorithm can be ingrate to the microcontroller easy.

Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (a)

For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI Harvard Business School9-700-115 Rev. November 21, 2007 Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A) In April, 1986, the upstart Irish airline Ryanair announced that it would soon commence service between Dublin and London. For nearly a year, the new airline had operated a 14-seat turboprop between Waterford, in the southeast of Ireland, and Gatwick Airport on the outskirts of London. The founders of Ryanair, brothers Cathal and Declan Ryan, felt that service on that first route had developed well. They knew, however, that the Dublin-London route would pose new challenges.For the first time, they would face Aer Lingus, British Airways, and other established competitors on a major route. European Aviation The environment in which the Ryan brothers launched their fledgling carrier had long been shaped by Europe’s national governments. 1Privately owned, commercial airlines sprang up in Europe following World War I. Soon, however, the governments of Brita in, France, Germany, and other countries began to amalgamate the first, small airlines into national â€Å"flag carriers. † Each of these airlines literally carried the flag of its nation on the tails of its aircraft.Figuratively also, each airline carried the flag, serving as an international emissary. Predecessors of British Airways, Air France, Lufthansa, and others gradually became owned by, and subsidized by, their national governments. The route structures of British, French, Dutch, and Belgian flag carriers developed to serve the colonial aims of their respective governments. For instance, the aircraft of British Airways’ predecessor, the aptly named Imperial Airways, were familiar sights in India, South Africa, Australia, and other British outposts by the 1930s. Service focused on international routes from each nation’s capital to colonies, other areas of national influence, and the capitals of other European countries. Intra-country service was sparse, largely connecting provincial cities to the capital. Fares on domestic routes were often kept high to subsidize international service. World War II brought advances in aviation that made air travel widely economical for the first time. The aftermath of the war also brought the threat of American dominance in air travel.Had free competition been permitted on international routes, the efficient, privately owned carriers of the United States would likely have won the lion’s share of the market. 3A set of multilateral and bilateral agreements averted this outcome. The International Air Traffic Association (IATA), essentially a government-endorsed cartel of the major airlines, emerged to set international fares. Governments negotiated bilateral agreements that regulated all aspects of air travel between pairs of countries. In Europe, â€Å"pooling arrangements† became common.Under pooling, the routes between, say, France and Italy would be given strictly to Air France and A litalia. The two flag carriers would Professor Jan W. Rivkin prepared this case as the basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright  © 2000, 2007 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685, write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to http://www. hbsp. harvard. edu.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of Harvard Business School. This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 1 For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI 700-115Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A) pool their capacity an d revenue, then divide the proceeds in an agreed-upon manner.Carriers were banned from flights that did not begin or terminate on their national soil; Air France, for instance, could not fly from Rome to Frankfurt or Milan. Intra-country service was also regulated strictly. To varying degrees, domestic fares were set by government authorities, and entry by new airlines was discouraged. The collapse of European empires and the advent of jets capable of crossing the Atlantic economically led virtually all European flag carriers to refocus their international efforts on routes across the North Atlantic in the late 1950s.Heavy and growing demand for transportation to and from North America made such routes highly profitable, at least initially. Europe’s system of regulation soon came under pressure. A late-1950s attempt to unify the flag carriers of France, West Germany, Belgium, and Italy collapsed under the weight of disparate national interests. By 1960, the Economist magazine bemoaned the state of the heavily regulated, fragmented airline industry. â€Å"The basic trouble,† it concluded, â€Å"remains that the world has too many airlines, most of them inefficient, undercapitalised and unprofitable. 4Though the IATA introduced some forms of restricted, discount fares in the 1950s, consumers grew dissatisfied with high prices. European regulations applied largely to regularly scheduled service between destinations. To bypass these regulations and to tap pent-up demand for leisure travel, charter airlines appeared and grew rapidly during the 1960s. These start-ups, funded in part by shipping companies, offered holiday makers cheap fares on non-scheduled flights and â€Å"inclusive tours† that bundled flights with lodging.Charter holidays proved especially popular among British and Irish vacationers, who used them to escape the North Sea for sunnier climes. By the mid-1980s, charter flights would transport 60% of all European passengers. 5Fla g carriers responded to the independent charter airlines both by establishing new discounts within the IATA structure and by starting charter subsidiaries themselves. The 1970s took airlines around the world into financial straits (Exhibit 1). The introduction of wide-bodied aircraft such as the Boeing 747 increased capacity on the North Atlantic route dramatically.The OPEC oil embargo raised the price of jet fuel, and the ensuing recession cut demand for air travel. These events hit Europe’s flag carriers, with their heavily unionized staffs and high fixed costs, especially hard. Exhibit 2 compares the staff productivity of European and U. S. airlines in 1978. In 1978, the U. S. Congress approved the thorough deregulation of the domestic U. S. airline industry. Pricing, route scheduling, entry, and exit were freed up dramatically. Prices plunged rapidly as airlines competed vigorously for marginal customers.Twenty-two new, low-cost carriers entered the market between 1978 an d 1980. 6Most of the new airlines soon failed, however. Established players such as American, United, and Delta used hub-and-spoke route structures and computerized reservation systems to spur a new wave of consolidation. Following consolidation, prices and profitability remained low and unstable. Strong U. S. airlines reached out for new routes into Europe. The U. S. experience brought calls for European deregulation from consumer advocates and supporters of competition.A 1984 memorandum from the European Commission proposed the abolition of pooling arrangements, price fixing, and government subsidies. Trade unions and flag carriers allied to defeat the proposal. In 1986, the Single European Act called for the creation of a unified European market by the end of 1992. The market was intended to â€Å"comprise an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured†¦. †7 Industry observers expected new proposals for the liberalization of the European airline industry to follow.This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 2 For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A)700-115 British Aviation and British Airways While Europe as a whole remained dominated by state-owned carriers with government- mandated monopolies or near-monopolies, individual countries moved to liberalize their domestic airline industries and to push for international deregulation on a bilateral basis with individual countries. The United Kingdom was among the most aggressive in doing so. As early as 1971, Britain’s airline regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority, encouraged the establishment of British Caledonian Airways (BCal) as a â€Å"second force† to compete with the dominant, state-owned British Airways (BA). Labor Party governments, however, subsequently protected BA from BCal’s incursions. Though independent airlines such as BCal and British Midland operated in the U. K. during this period, momentum for airline deregulation picked up only after the election of the Conservative, market-minded Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1979.An early Thatcher bill required, for the first time, that regulators give the interests of consumers equal weight to the interests of operators when allocating licenses for new routes. A hallmark of Thatcher’s government was the privatization of state-owned enterprises, and a centerpiece of her privatization programme was a proposed flotation of BA on the stock market. The state of BA in 1979, however, precluded a rapid privatization. The cost structure of BA and its predecessors had been high at least since the end ofWorld War II, when the flag carrier was expected to â€Å"find a job for every demobilized member of the [Royal Air Force]. †9In 1977, the U. S. carrier Delta transported 30. 7 million p assengers with 31,000 employees while BA’s staff of 54,300 moved 14. 5 million passengers. 10After thin profits in the late 1970s, BA suffered a loss of UK? 102 million on revenue of UK? 1,760 million in 1981. A new chairman, John King—a self-made millionaire with experience in the ball-bearing industry—was brought in to revive BA and prepare it for privatization.With generous severance packages, King reduced BA’s staff to 38,000 by 1985. Loss-making routes were surrendered to competitors, and maintenance stations and training colleges were shuttered. King soon yielded the reins to Colin Marshall, a former executive of car rental agency Avis, who began to improve customer service. Marshall paid particular attention to satisfying full-fare business customers. By 1984, BA was earning record profits (Exhibit 3), and its privatization was being planned for 1987. Deregulation slowed during the period of BA’s turnaround.A Civil Aviation Authority proposa l to shift some of BA’s routes to BCal, for instance, was defeated in 1984, largely because the Treasury Ministry opposed the plan. In 1986, BA operated one of the world’s most extensive airline route networks, serving 145 destinations in 68 countries. 11No airline carried more international passengers. International journeys accounted for roughly two-thirds of the seats that BA sold and nine-tenths of its revenue. Nearly 80% of passengers passed through London’s main airport at Heathrow, one of the world’s busiest transportation hubs.Plying the network was a fleet of 163 aircraft, ranging from 44-seat turboprops to Boeing 747s with room for nearly 400. Since 1980, BA had invested roughly UK? 700 million to purchase 55 new aircraft, mostly for service within Europe. The company was beginning to upgrade its intercontinental fleet. In the United Kingdom and New York, BA provided its own passenger and ground services (e. g. , for passenger check-in, baggage handling, and aircraft cleaning). Elsewhere, it hired contractors to perform such services.BA catered its own flights from Heathrow, but contracted out all other catering. The company performed most of its own maintenance from a base at Heathrow and had engineering capabilities at three-quarters of the airports it served. BA sold tickets over the telephone and in 171 retail shops worldwide, where agents also sold package vacations. In addition, 49,000 independent travel agents had the ability to book tickets on BA via computerized reservation systems, including BA’s own system. Such agents accounted for 83% of the company’s scheduled passenger revenue.BA pitched its services to a wide range of This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 3 For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI 700-115Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A) business and leisure travelers. Accordingly, i t offered a spectrum of ticket prices with varying restrictions and the full range of classes of service—from first class to economy. Especially among business travelers, BA was known for its improving in-flight amenities. Exhibit 4 shows BA’s revenue and operating cost per scheduled passenger.The 6. 9% operating margin shown there reflects BA’s entire route network. In Europe alone, the carrier earned a 4. 4% margin. Irish Aviation and Aer Lingus As a country with a small population, limited land mass (roughly 250 kilometers across and 400 long), and no colonial possessions, Ireland did not lend itself naturally to commercial aviation. 12 Yet in 1936, a mere 15 years after Ireland’s initial political separation from Britain and 13 years before full independence, government and private interests in Ireland came together to form Aer Lingus, a flag carrier for the emerging state.Government support proved crucial in the airline’s early days. Annual lo sses in the 1930s and 1940s commonly ran between 20% and 100% of revenue. Not until the early 1950s did the airline earn a profit in consecutive years, and then only for a short period. Early on, passenger traffic focused on routes between Ireland and Britain, where a large population of Irish emigrants resided. To develop these routes, the Irish and British governments struck an unusual arrangement in 1946. Through BA’s predecessors, the British government took a 40% stake in Aer Lingus, leaving 60% in the hands of Ireland.Aer Lingus was granted monopoly rights to routes over the Irish Sea. BA’s predecessors gained the valuable right to land at Shannon Airport on Ireland’s west coast, refuel, and continue on across the Atlantic. (Aircraft ranges at the time required such a refueling stop. ) In exchange, Aer Lingus was allowed to land in Manchester, take on passengers, and continue to continental Europe. Such â€Å"onward rights† were rare in Europe and m arked the beginning of relatively liberal bilateral agreements between Britain and Ireland.The British partnership continued for a decade until Aer Lingus’ desire to develop its own trans-Atlantic routes, to reach the large ethnic Irish populations in New York and Boston, created a rift. Amicably, the British government reduced and eventually relinquished its stake in Aer Lingus. The predecessors of BA and independent carriers such as British Midland began to fly routes between Britain and Ireland. Problems on the North Atlantic corridor in the 1970s hit Aer Lingus especially hard. Compared to other carriers on the route, Aer Lingus drew its passengers especially heavily from the ranks of tourists.Tourist passengers actively sought promotional fares, created erratic peaks of seasonal demand, and largely stayed at home during the recession of the mid-1970s. The Irish government insisted that Aer Lingus continue to fly the North Atlantic corridor despite losses on the route. 13 Aer Lingus first published its objectives in 1971 and had, by 1986, reviewed and ratified the statement a number of times. The statement called on Aer Lingus to provide an air transport service that was â€Å"safe, efficient, reliable, and profitable. The airline touted the many benefits it brought to the Irish community: national development, promotion of tourism, employment, a contribution to the balance of payments, and educational, social, and cultural services. 14 Losses in the 1970s prompted Aer Lingus to seek new sources of revenue and profit. â€Å"We perceived that an airline with a limited home market, limited financial resources and a cyclical product would have to diversify,† reflected one of Aer Lingus’ chief executives. 15Aer Lingus began to offer maintenance service and engineer training to other airlines.Successful introduction of its computer reservation system led Aer Lingus to offer computer consulting and data processing services. The company also entered the hotel business in London, Paris, and New England. By 1986, This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 4 For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A)700-115 so-called ancillary businesses include hospital management in Baghdad and an investment in robotics. In 1984-85, air transportation, irline-related services such as maintenance, and non-airline businesses provided Aer Lingus operating profits of 0. 5 million Irish pounds (I? ), I? 12. 7 million, and I? 17. 1 million, respectively. 16Within air transportation, Aer Lingus’ domestic and European routes earned a modest operating profit while its trans-Atlantic flights sustained operating losses for the sixth time in seven years. 17During the coming decade, Aer Lingus faced tens of millions of pounds of investment to replace aging jets in its fleet. Government officials were conte mplating the sale of part of the company to finance the capital expenditures.Ryanair Cathal and Declan Ryan had essentially grown up in the airline industry. 18Their father, Tony Ryan, had long worked for Aer Lingus. As the flag carrier’s aircraft leasing manager, the elder Ryan struck innovative deals to lease excess capacity to other airlines. From 1973 to 1975, for instance, he arranged for an Aer Lingus 747 and its Irish crew to ply Air Siam’s route between Bangkok and Los Angeles. 19In 1975, Tony Ryan co-founded Guinness Peat Aviation, which quickly became the largest aircraft leasing company in the world.Tony Ryan’s 10% stake in Guinness Peat Aviation gave him sufficient wealth to invest a million Irish pounds in his sons’ efforts to launch an airline. Both sons were in their 20s when Ryanair initiated service in 1985. At first, Ryanair used a 14-seat turboprop aircraft to run a scheduled service between Waterford in the southeast of Ireland and Gat wick Airport, one of London’s secondary airports. This initial service was intended to prove the company’s ability to operate a scheduled airline successfully. In 1986, Ryanair gained a license to operate between Dublin and Luton, another of London’s secondary airports.Aer Lingus and BA already operated on the Dublin-London route, which was reputed to be quite lucrative for both carriers. Indeed, Aer Lingus’ Chairman noted that â€Å"Dublin-London is the only route on the Aer Lingus network that has the volume of business to allow of itself a reasonable return on capital. †20Aer Lingus’ and BA’s least expensive, unrestricted round-trip fares on the route were priced at I? 208 (equivalent to UK? 189 at the time). Discount fares as low as I? 99 were available, though they had to be booked one month in advance.Observers felt that the figures shown in Exhibit 4 were typical of Aer Lingus’ and BA’s average revenues and costs for a Dublin-London round trip. Ryanair managers believed that the flights of Aer Lingus and BA were typically 60-70% full. According to airport authorities, half a million round-trip passengers flew the route each year. The total number of air passengers on the route had been stagnant for ten years. Roughly three-quarters of a million round-trip travelers opted to use rail and sea ferries rather than aircraft. The journey took nine hours by rail and ferry and one hour by air.Prices of round-trip rail-and-ferry tickets fell as low as I? 55. 21 On their new Dublin-London service, the Ryan brothers intended to run four round trips per day with a 44-seat turboprop. They did not have permission to fly larger jet aircraft on the route, but hoped to get permission soon. Ryanair would offer meals and amenities comparable to what Aer Lingus and British Airways provided. The company would distinguish itself from the flag carriers in two ways. First, its employees would focus intently on deli vering first-rate customer service.Second, the company would charge a simple, single fare for a ticket with no restrictions. In announcing its Dublin-London service, Ryanair publicized a fare of I? 98. This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 5 700-115 Exhibit 1 For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A) Composite Profitability of All Major, Scheduled European Airlines 10 5 0 -5 Introduction of wide-body jets First oil crisis Second oil crisis -10 Introduction of jetsSource: Association of European Airlines, 1994 Yearbook, p. 19. Exhibit 2Staff Productivity of U. S. and European Airlines, 1978 Airline U. S. carriers: American Eastern Pan American TWA United European carriers: Air France Alitalia British Airways KLM Lufthansa Staff 40,134 35,899 26,964 36,549 52,065 32,173 17,040 54,645 17,812 29,400 Passengers per staff memberStaff per aircraft 762158 1,099156 358355 665156 657156 333314 374279 308264 231326 460320 Source: House of Lords Select Committee on European Air Fares, 1981, 185-7, European Air Fares, Air Transport Users Committee, Civil Aviation Authority, 1978.Cited in P. Lyth and H. Dienel, â€Å"Introduction† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), p. 8. This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 6 Profit after interest as a percentage of total costs 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A) Exhibit 3British Airways Performance, 1977-85 For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI 700-115 Revenue (mm UK? ) Operating profit before taxes and interest (mm UK? )Passengers (mm) Staff (thousands) Available ton-kilometers (mm) T on-kilometersused(mm) Load* (%) 197719791981 1,073. 91,403. 31,760 95. 876 . 0(102) 14. 515. 817. 0 54. 355. 953. 6 6,2337,1647,930 3,6074,4164,812 586261 19831985 2,0512,905 169292 16. 318. 4 45. 938. 1 7,2087,837 4,4615,267 6267 * Load = portion of available ton-kilometers used, a measure of capacity utilization. Source: British Airways Annual Reports. Cited in P. Lyth, â€Å"Chosen Instruments: The Evolution of British Airways† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), pp. 2, 74. Exhibit 4British Airways Average Revenue and Cost per Passenger, 1986 UK? Revenue 151. 3 Operating expenses Staff32. 4 Depreciation & amortization7. 8 Fuel & oil28. 9 Engineering and other aircraft costs8. 9 Selling16. 4 Aircraft operating leases3. 1 Landing fees and en route charges10. 6 Handling charges, catering, & other15. 1 Accommodation, ground equipment & other17. 7 Percent of I? Revenue 166. 5100. 0% 35. 721. 4% 8. 65. 1% 31. 819. 1% 9. 85. 9% 18. 010. 8% 3. 42. 0% 11. 77. 0% 16. 610. 0% 19. 511. 7% Subtotal 140. 9 Operating profit10. 411. 4Source: Case writer calculations, based on British Airways Prospectus, February 11, 1987. This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 7 155. 193. 1% 6. 9% For the exclusive use of J. SICINSKI 700-115Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A) Notes 1 This section draws especially on P. Lyth and H. Dienel, â€Å"Introduction,† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), pp. 1-17. 2 P. Lyth, â€Å"Chosen Instruments: The Evolution of British Airways,† in H.Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), p. 50. 3 P. Lyth and H. Dienel, â€Å"Introduction,† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmilla n, 1998), p. 3. 4 â€Å"Unfree as the Air,† The Economist, May 28, 1960. 5 P. Lyth and H. Dienel, â€Å"Introduction,† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), p. 7. 6 N. Donohue and P. Ghemawat, â€Å"The U. S. Airline Industry, 1978-1988 (A), HBS Case 390-025. A. P. Dobson, Flying in the Face of Competition (Hants: Avebury Aviation, 1995), p. 192. 8 This section draws especially on P. Lyth, â€Å"Chosen Instruments: The Evolution of British Airways† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), pp. 50- 86. 9 P. Lyth, â€Å"Chosen Instruments: The Evolution of British Airways† in H. Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), p. 65. 10 P. Lyth, â€Å"Chosen Instruments: The Evolution of British Airways† in H.Dienel and P. Lyth, eds. , Flying the Flag: European Commercial Air Transport Since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), pp. 72-73. 11 The following description of British Airways in 1986 draws on the company’s February 11, 1987, prospectus. 12 This section draws especially on M. O’Riain, Aer Lingus, 1936-1986: A Business Monograph, 1987 and B. Share, The Flight of the Iolar: The Aer Lingus Experience, 1936-1986 (Dublin: Gill and Macmillan, 1986). 13 H. Carnegy, â€Å"Turbulent Times for Aer Lingus,† Financial Times, June 3, 1986. 14 Aer Lingus Annual Report, March 31, 1986. 15 Extract from M. J.Dargan’s address to the 50th Anniversary Banquet of Aer Lingus in the Royal Hospital, Kilmainham, 27 May 1986. Quoted in M. O’Riain, Aer Lingus, 1936-1986: A Business Monograph, 1987. 16 H. Carnegy, â€Å"Turbulent Times for Aer Lingus,† Financial Times, June 3, 1986. 17 Aer Lingus Annual Report, March 31, 1986. 18 This section draws especially on interviews conducted with Ryanair personnel between February 10 and February 17, 2000, including Michael O’Leary, CEO; Declan Ryan, founder; Charlie Clifton, Director of Ground Operations and Inflight; and Kevin Osborne, Director of Purchasing and Administration. 9 B. Share, The Flight of the Iolar: The Aer Lingus Experience, 1936-1986 (Dublin: Gill and Macmillan, 1986), pp. 203- 206. 20 Aer Lingus Annual Report, March 31, 1986. 21 J. Fagan, â€Å"Air Price War Hits Sea Route Traffic,† Financial Times, September 24, 1987. H. Carnegy, â€Å"UK-Irish Air Route Challenge,† Financial Times, April 24, 1986. This document is authorized for use only by Jan Sicinski in Strategic Management IBP 10-11 taught by Dr. TOMASZ LUDWICKI from October 2010 to April 2011. 8

An Analysis of the Depiction of Horaces Philosophy of Life in Gather Ye Rosebuds, A Quiet Life, and Rustic Joys

An Analysis of the Depiction of Horace's Philosophy of Life in Gather Ye Rosebuds, A Quiet Life, and Rustic Joys Horace’s philosophy of life, I believe, can be summed up quite effectively by this line on his poem Gather Ye Rosebuds, addressed to Leuconoe: â€Å"This day’s thine own, the next may be denied†. Horace is all about finding fulfilment in life through enjoyment of â€Å"the present hour†, and living a life worth living. He finds no joy in wars or worries, but says that life is only worth living if you can enjoy it as much as possible. Gather Ye Rosebuds is the first poem in which Horace attests to this philosophy of life. He tells Leuconoe that he does not care what astrologers predict, or whatever may befall him, he believes that we are powerless to act in opposition to the fate of the world, so one should drink a lot, be happy, don’t think about the future, and generally enjoy each day as it comes. While we debate politics or future uncertainties, time that you could be enjoying slips away. I think this shows Horace’s philosophy of life most strongly. Horace also tells us that deciding to save and be stringent with money is a waste. â€Å"Enjoy your possessions while they are yours† is a poem that describes death, and the inevitability of it, but also contrasts it with the beauty of life that you could be enjoying right now. He describes a beautiful villa on the banks of the river Tiber, that you worked long and hard to purchase, just for your heirs to swoop in and grab up all your hoarded gold, then presumably go and waste it. Horace wants us to enjoy the use of our money now, and not worry about leaving it to anyone, because you’ll be dead, and they’ll squander it anyway. He also mentions this in â€Å"We all must die†, saying that death is inevitable, and your heirs will quickly forget about you once you’re dead, so there’s no use giving them everything you made. The philosophy of Horace also includes his wish to escape from ‘all this’, in â€Å"A Quiet Life†, he talks at length about the fact that humans fight, humans struggle, humans live to find a calm and quiet life after the fact. Soldiers endure their hunger, cold and marches because they want to return home to peace. Money and power doesn’t calm the chaos inside of one’s mind, nor does being king. Horace preaches that one is with few means, but is perfectly happy with this means, and does not seek constantly more, more, more. All the happiest man wants, is peace and quiet. You can’t escape your fate, no bodyguards will let you outrun fear, so one should laugh and be merry to drown all of those negative feelings, and aim to live a quiet, peaceful life. In â€Å"Enjoy the Present Hour†, Horace again shows his philosophy of living life to the fullest. He talks about a depressingly cold mountainside outside, but revels in the warmth of his hearth, the wine, and a bit of light conversation to pass the time. He says that the future is the gods’ domain, let them worry about the weather and the seasons, life and death, â€Å"Lay hold upon the present hour†, and live in the moment. He says that one day we will all see death coming for us, at some point, and old age will wrack our bodies, but one has to love their youth before these things, to live a fulfilled life. The best times are now, and only the gods need worry about tomorrow. Horace embraces his own philosophy in Rustic Joys, here talks about how blessed it is to be free from debts, from work, from creditors and other stresses of city life. Horace writes about the beauty of nature, and his love of just being in the countryside, living a quiet life of small pleasures. The man described is a skilled worker, and has skilful hands, Horace respects his skill at work, and the beauty of it. He says the pleasure of a simple life such as this would remove all troubles from the world, such as a lover lost. He romanticises a life in the countryside in the peace and quiet as something with no worries or preoccupations, and that all should strive to life like the man who works on the farm.

Development plan for strengthening scholarship and professional life Assignment

Development plan for strengthening scholarship and professional life - Assignment Example A scholarship enables an individual to make educational advancement in improving professional performance within the nursing profession. The personal development plan remains essential in ensuring improvement of both the professional and scholarship lives. Within the professional life as a nurse, the fundamental role remains the provision of nursing care to individuals who require the services. The functions undertaken as a nurse have been fundamental in determining the quality of services offered within the profession. The fundamental requirements in undertaking the various responsibilities include different skills, which are essential in performing various functions. Communication remains a basic requirement within this profession as individuals must communicate in seeking to gather information from individuals being provided with care. Effectiveness of the services delivered in the nursing profession remains highly dependent on effective communication. This enables one to understand the other individuals and the patients receiving care as well. Working relationships with other professional employees also presents a significant impact upon the services delivered within the healthcare sector. Many of the care services are provided by different professional in achieving holistic care. The relationships existing between these professional have fundamental effect in care delivery and establishment of good relationships remains a basic requirement for the ole of a nurse. Knowledge and understanding enables one to effectively manage the various situations which commonly face nurses within the profession. The knowledge is commonly gained from educational training and work experience, as well (Sinclair & Ferguson, 2009). This remains one of the fundamental aspects required in ensuring effective delivery of healthcare services. Continuous improvement of the above aspects remains

Managing change Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Managing change - Essay Example Clearly, there is a separation of vision within the executive leadership group mandating an immediate necessity to unify this group by way of establishing a singular strategic goal for securing the banks continued growth and obtaining policies which enhance internal productivity. A common purpose derived of senior-level unity of vision is a missing element from the organizational climate and this level of division is having a profound trickle down effect on the banking staff which further creates a disorganized and uncertain culture. Further, the rigid top-down leadership hierarchy of command established within the bank prevents empowering staff to utilize their vast skills through self-managed contributions. The breakdown of communication in the Australian Regional Bank can best be defined in the organizations lack of development regarding customer relationship management and this collapse of communication is impacting productivity on all levels. Despite the banks history of substantial successes, radical change in terms of internal practice is proposed in order to move forward as a cohesive business entity. Developing a common purpose within the executive leadership group should be recognized as a primary objective in order to establish a clear path forward in terms of how the company intends to sustain growth in its industry. While some new executives continue to resist the direction proposed by the Chief General Manager, others are attempting to mimic opposing successes established in the executives previous career position. This division amongst leadership is substantially visible to the bank employees, creating a sense of confusion, doubt, and mistrust in terms of perceived manager/employee relationships. Lack of management visibility and support, especially for companies experiencing a transitional phase, will directly affect employees perceptions about whether or not the company is well-managed (Boles & Sunoo, 1998). Faith in

Domestic Intelligence and Priorities versus Politics Essay

Domestic Intelligence and Priorities versus Politics - Essay Example (Gillam & Mogren, 2007) This is mainly related to protection by the law enforcement or the constitution of the country. These two (domestic intelligence and law enforcement) are both meant to protect the citizens from terrorist attacks or any other form of insecurity. Scholars however states that the two cannot work together since they tend to be having different objectives. The law enforcement mainly focuses on protection of the citizens while domestic intelligence, though still protecting the citizens, is meant to collect information and search for any terrorists at all costs. It is therefore argued that, in the process of gathering the information, the citizens’ privacy is compromised and thus their civil liberties threatened. In my opinion however, domestic intelligence is worthwhile since it protects the citizens. I would argue that a decrease in the civil liberties in order to enforce further protection from terrorism is better than freedom with no security. It would be better for domestic intelligence to be increased so as to protect the citizens from any possible terrorists than to claim that civil liberties are being violated. This is mainly because, if civil liberties are given the first priority the terrorists will also take advantage of this and thus hide among the citizens without being identified. The government determines the key infrastructure and key assets through determination of the benefits that are likely to be obtained from the infrastructure and also assessment of the costs that are involved. Determination of whether resources are equally distributed is determined by the level of participation of citizens in the various economic activities of the country. When most of the countries citizens are contributing to the income of the country, then it shows that the resources are well distributed. This is because it is an indication that people can access both economic, education

A musical score of Citizen Kane utilizing Gorbman methodology Essay

A musical score of Citizen Kane utilizing Gorbman methodology - Essay Example This research will begin with the statement that Ð µhe notion that music in films usually has powerful effects on its viewers in indisputable. However, the careful examination of the reason behind the effects is greatly ignored. People tend to correlate previously unassociated pieces of drama to what is heard in a film music. Basically, any kind of music played in a film has to have a purpose. Every spontaneous melody or pre-composed piece is a potential option for a cinematic soundtrack (Patrik 45). One has to ask how and why people are so interested in combining drama and music in a film. While it is evident that the full emotional effect of a movie scene is carried through the successful interpretation of audio and visual information, the music in the movie still carries a significant effect for the interpretation of the director’s intent and style. The objective of this paper is to provide an analysis of the musical score of the movie Citizen Kane by utilizing Gorman and Kassabian methodologies.

Is the UK Meeting its Recycling Targets Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Is the UK Meeting its Recycling Targets - Essay Example This paper studies the current state of recycling in the United Kingdom with a special emphasis into plastic, glass and paper & board materials. It compares the government initiatives and accomplishments to other European nations. It provides a critical analysis of the effect of the EU Directive in reducing landfill contamination. Recycling glass has a beneficial impact in a country’s environment. Susan Hubbard says that every ton of cullet return to the market saves between 1.2 to 2.8 million British thermal units compared with the use of land filling and incineration (Toto, 2005). The process most commonly used to recycle glass is to remelt the material, a procedure which saves energy, reduces carbon dioxide emissions and reduce the consumption of the natural resource (Wrap, 2007). Appendix A illustrates the United Kingdom’s glass recycling rate. The country recycled 6% of the glass in 1984, but nearly 20 years later the recycling rate of the material had increased to 35% in the UK. The EU packaging waste directive set a 60% glass recycling target for the year 2006 (Glass, 2002). According to Glass Magazine countries such as Germany and Netherlands surpassed the 70% glass recycling rate before 2002, but other European nations such as the United Kingdom were struggling recycling glass a very lo w recycling rate of 23%. The UK is not very competitive in comparison with its European neighbors in glass recycling. One of the reasons the United Kingdom is struggling to recycle at the pace of other European nations is because the country does not have an effective glass recovery program in place to separate crystal and colour glass. There are different markets in the recycling industry for the two types of glass. If the UK establishes an efficient system to separate the products in their pickup efforts they could accelerate the process of

Organizational Culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Organizational Culture - Essay Example enacted values represent values and norms that are demonstrated through employee behavior. Organizational culture helps in adaptation to organization’s external environment and coordination of internal systems and processes. The four main functions include providing organizational identity to its employees; foster commitment to organizational values and goals; promote and sustain positive reinforcement of performance and manage change; and shape employee behavior by aligning their expectations to organizational goals. Organizational culture is divided into four types namely, clan, adhocracy, market and hierarchical cultures. The clan culture encourages flexibility of control and fosters collaboration between employees of different groups or functions. Adhocracy culture encourages innovation by being flexible, adaptive and in pace with market changes. Market culture adopt stability and control in order to keep up pace with external competitors and changing customer demands. Thi s culture focuses more on customer needs and profits than on employee growth and development. The hierarchy culture embraces internal control and structured work environment to create strong processes that control, measure and drive desired results. b.

Fruits As Battery Essay Example for Free

Fruits As Battery Essay Additional information Batteries are devices that store chemical energy and convert it to electrical energy. Consisting of one or more voltaic cells, batteries come in various sizes and forms and are integrated into most electronic and portable devices. Electrical current is the flow of electrons (movement) of an electrical charge and is measured using an ammeter. Solid conductive metals contain large population of free electrons, which are bound to the metal lattice and move around randomly due to thermal energy. When two terminals of a voltage source (battery) are connected via a metal wire, the free electrons of the conductor drift toward the positive terminal, making them the electrical current carrier within the conductor. Required materials Citrus fruits, such as lemons, limes, grapefruits, or oranges. Copper nail, approximately 2 inches in length Galvanized (zinc) nail, about 2 inches in length Small colored or opaque light bulb with a 2 inch lead, such as a holiday LED light. Note that there needs to be enough wire to connect to the nails. Electrical tape or Crocodile (aka: gator) clip (optional) Micro Ammeter a measuring instrument used to measure the electric current in a circuit, can be found at your local Radio Shack store. (optional) Estimated Experiment Time About 5 to 10 minutes Step-By-Step Procedure 1. Prepare your fruit for the experiment by squeezing it on all sides with your hands. Make sure not to squeeze too tightly and break the skin! The idea is to soften the fruit enough so that the juice inside are flowing. 2. Insert your nails into the fruit, approximately 2 inches apart from one another. The ends (sharp tips) of the nails should be in the center of the fruit, but not touching one another. Be careful not to pierce the nails through the opposite end of the fruit. 3. Remove the insulation around the bulb wires (the leads) so you can expose the wire underneath. You need to remove enough insulation so you can wrap the exposed wire around the nails. 4. Take one of the exposed wires and wrap it around the galvanized (zinc) nail. If the wire keeps slipping off, use some electrical tape or gator clips to keep it attached. 5. Wrap the other end of the wire around the copper nail. 6. When the second wire is attached to the copper nail, your bulb will light up! Note The size of the light bulb will affect how brightly its lit. LED lights require the least amount of energy to light and thus are the best candidates for this experiment. If you have a Micro Ammeter, you can use it to compare the effectiveness of various fruits in relation to electrical current. If using a Micro Ammeter, follow these steps: 1. Connect one of the Micro Ammeters terminals to the copper nail and attach with a Crocodile clip. 2. Connect the other Micro Ammeters terminal to the galvanized plate and attach with a Crocodile clip. Try using different kinds of fruits and measure the differences between them. You may want to consider tomatoes (yes, they ARE fruit) as they have one of the highest pH levels of fruits, making them perfect for this experiment. Observation Do you think another kind of fruit would work with this experiment? How about a vegetable? Which fruit has the best conductivity? Do you think moving the  nails further apart will change the current? Do you think your fruit will continue to power the light bulb after a few hours? How about a few days? Do you think the size of the fruit would effect the voltage? Result The zinc nail is an active metal, which reacts with the acid in the fruit. The active ingredient in the fruit are positively charged ions. A transfer of electrons takes place between the zinc nail and the acid from the fruit. The nails act as poles for the battery, one positive and one negative. Electrons travel from the positive pole to the negative pole via the light bulb wire (the conductor), generating enough electricity to light the bulb.

Introduction To Demand Forecasting Business Essay

Introduction To Demand Forecasting Business Essay Introduction to Demand Forecasting: Forecasting provides an estimate of future demand and the basis for planning and sound business decisions. Since all organizations deal with an unknown future, some error between a forecast and actual demand is to be expected. Thus, the goal of a good forecasting technique is to minimize the deviation between actual demand and forecast. Since a forecast is a prediction of the future, factors that influence demand, the impact of these factors, and whether these factors will continue influence future demands must be considered in developing an accurate forecast. In addition, buyers and sellers should share all relevant information to generate a single consensus forecast so that the correct decision on the supply and demand can be made. The benefits of a better forecast are lower inventories, reduce stock outs, smoother production plans, reduced costs and improved customer service. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) The impact of a poor communication and inaccurate forecast resonates all along the supply chain and results the bull whip effects causing stock outs, lost sales, high cost of inventory and obsolesce, material shortages, poor responsiveness to market dynamics, and poor profitability. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Matching Supply And Demand: The concept of matching supply with demand is straightforward. Just strike the right balance between what your customers want and the inventory investment required to meet that demand. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market. Now a day business scenario is completely change revived. Demand, supply, logistics, whole supply chain management. Now we have consumer who are more focused demanding. Whole buying behavior is turn into pull behavior where suppliers are more concern about consumers demand. Now a day retailer if supplier do not full fill the target requirement of retailer of right quantity, right time right price that retailer would not wait long for supplier to fulfill requirement rather prefer to switch supplier. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Here matching supply demand forecast help any company to slice the threat of stock out, sales, customer relationship, business loyalities.in order to achieve sound supply chain, supplier must have forecast the future conditions so they can meet the expected targets deliver right commodities to its customers in a timely manner cost effective approach. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Of course, its not that easy. Buying too much wastes time, money and space-and exposes you to potential losses from liquidating overstocks. Underestimating demand leads to backorders, cancellations and unsatisfied customers who turn to your competitors. Incorporating SCM successfully leads to a new kind of competition on the global market where competition is no longer of the company versus company form but rather takes on a supply chain versus supply chain form. (decisioncraft.com) The primary objective of supply chain management is to fulfill customer demands through the most efficient use of resources, including distribution capacity, inventory and labor. In theory, a supply chain seeks to match demand with supply and do so with the minimal inventory. Various aspects of optimizing the supply chain include liaising with suppliers to eliminate bottlenecks; sourcing strategically to strike a balance between lowest material cost and transportation, implementing JIT (Just In Time) techniques to optimize manufacturing flow; maintaining the right mix and location of factories and warehouses to serve customer markets, and using location/allocation, vehicle routing analysis, dynamic programming and, of course, traditional logistics optimization to maximize the efficiency of the distribution side. (decisioncraft.com) The effects that inventory levels have on sales. In the extreme case of stock-outs, demand coming into your store is not converted to sales due to a lack of availability. Demand is also untapped when sales for an item are decreased due to a poor display location, or because the desired sizes are no longer available. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Demand for an item will likely rise if a competitor increases the price or if you promote the item in your weekly circular. The resulting sales increase reflects a change in demand as a result of consumers responding to stimuli that potentially drive additional sales. In this case demand forecasting uses techniques in causal modeling. Demand forecast modeling considers the size of the market and the dynamics of market share versus competitors and its effect on firm demand over a period of time. No demand forecasting method is 100% accurate. Combined forecasts improve accuracy and reduce the likelihood of large errors. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Purposes of Forecasting: Purposes of Short-Term Forecasting Appropriate production scheduling. Reducing costs of purchasing raw materials. Determining appropriate price policy Setting sales targets and establishing controls and incentives. Evolving a suitable advertising and promotional campaign. Forecasting short term financial requirements. Purposes of Long-Term Forecasting Planning of a new unit or expansion of an existing unit. Planning long term financial requirements. Planning man-power requirements. (webcache.com) Length of Forecasts: Short-term forecasts up to 12 months, e.g., sales quotas, inventory control, production schedules, planning cash flows, budgeting. Medium-term 1-2 years, e.g., rate of maintenance, schedule of operations, and budgetary control over expenses. Long-term 3-10 years, e.g., capital expenditures, personnel requirements, financial requirements, raw material requirements.(Most uncertain in nature)  (webcache.com) Control Demand or Management of  Demand: The key to management of demand is the effective management of the purchases of final consumers. The management of demand consists in devising a sales strategy for a particular product. It also consists in planning a product, or features of a product, around which a sales strategy can be built. Product design, model change, packaging and even performance reflect the need to provide what are called strong selling points. (webcache.com) Forecasting Techniques: Understanding that the forecast is very often inaccurate does not mean that nothing can be done to improve e the forecast. Both quantitative and qualitative forecast can be improved by seeking inputs from trading partners. Qualitative forecasting methods are based on opinions and intuition whereas quantitative forecasting methods use mathematical models and relevant historical data to generate forecast. Qualitative Methods: The qualitative methods are subdivided into. The four common qualitative forecasting models are, Jury Of Executive Opinion: Qualitative forecasting in which a group of senior management executives who are knowledgeable about the market, competitors, and the business environment collectively developed the forecast. Delphi Method: Qualitative forecasting in which a group of internal and external experts are surveyed during several rounds in term of future events and long term forecasts of demand; the group members do not physically meet. Sales Force Composite: Qualitative forecast generated based on the sales forces knowledge of the market and estimates of the customers need. Consumer Survey: A questioner administered through telephone, mail, internet, or personal interviews that seeks inputs from customers on important issues such as future buying habits, new product ideas, and opinions about existing products. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Quantitative Methods: Time series forecasting is based on the assumptions that the future is an extension of the past, thus, the historical that can be used to predict future demands. The components of time series data are, Trend Variations: Either increasing or decreasing ,movements over many years that are due to factors such as population growth, population shifts, cultural changes, and income shifts. Cyclical Variations: Wave like movements that are longer than a year and influenced by macro economic and political factors. Seasonal Variations: Peaks and valleys that repeat over a constant interval such as hours ,days, weeks, months, years, or seasons. Random Variations: Random peaks and valleys those are due to unexpected or unpredictable events such as natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, fire) strikes, and wars. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): Voluntary Inter industry Commerce Standards (VICS),a New Jersey based Association defines Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment(CPFR) as, a business practice that combines the brainpower of two or more trading partners in planning the ways to fulfill the customer demand. They also explained the relationship that CPFR links best practices of sales and marketing, such as category management, to the implementation of supply chain planning and completion process, to increase availability while reducing inventory, transportation and logistics costs. Basically CPFR is an approach that deals with the requirements for good demand management. The most involved industries with CPFR are consumer products and food and beverage. (Collaborative Planning,Forecasting Replenishment CPFR) Objective of CPFR: The objective of CPFR is to optimize the supply chain process by: Improving accuracy of forecasting demand Delivering the right product at the right time to the right location Reducing inventory Avoiding stock outs Improving customer service But the most important fact on which the achievement of objective and activities of CPFR depend is to have collaborative trading partners who share risk and information mutually in the whole process. Without Collaborative planning and forecasting between the trading partners will make the supply chain suboptimal, thus will result in less-than-maximum supply chain profits. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Real value of CPFR: It is observed that forecasting developed only by firm tends to be inaccurate most of the time so therefore in CPFR when both the buyer and seller collaborate in forecasting, then it makes possible to match buyer needs with supplier production plans, thus ensuring competent replenishment. CPFR also helps in avoiding expensive corrections after the fact when demand or promotions have changed. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Benefits of CPFR: Strengthens supply chain partner relationships Provides analysis of sales and order forecast which improves the forecast accuracy Manage the demand chain and proactively eliminate problems before they appear Allow collaboration on future requirements and plans Combine planning, forecasting and logistic activities Provides efficient category management and understanding of consumer purchasing patterns (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Example 1: West Marine is one of the companies that has greatly benefited by implementing CPFR.They had CPFR relationships with 200 suppliers, 85 percent forecast accuracy, and 80 percent on-time shipments. For CPFR success collaboration with external part is important, and it is equally important that effective collaboration within the company is emphasized. For example: logistics, planning and replenishment personnel must work closely together. Example 2: CPFR was also implemented by ITTs Jabsco division, West Marines largest customer. During the process they experienced a reduction in cycle time from twenty-five days to three days, an increase in total sales of 11 percent, and a great improvement in on-time deliveries from 74 to 94 percent. Example 3: Wal-Mart is one of the early implementer of CPFR. CPFR enabled Wal-Mart to move into Just-in-Time (JIT) system that resulted in significant savings in inventory carrying costs for Wal-Mart, as well as its suppliers. Example 4: In late 1990s, most of the large American-based multinational companies such as Procter Gamble (PG) and Wal-Mart enter into a system called Collaborative Planning, forecasting and Replenishment. (Williams) Challenges for CPFR implementation There are top three difficulties faced by organizations in implementing CPFR: Making internal changes: Internal changes must always be tackled by top management as change is always difficult but if the top management is dedicated to the project and in educating employees about the benefits of CPFR then there are more chances of getting a successful internal change. Total implementation cost: Although cost is an important factor to be considered always but companies must determine whether they are at a competitive disadvantage. Trust: is one of the biggest hurdles in general implementation of CPFR as many retailers are unwilling to share the information required to implement CPFR. For example: Wal-Mart may be willing to share their sensitive data with the Wal-Mart only as they do not want other suppliers to know their information. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Emerging Trends: Companies are finding new and innovative ways to collaborate. For example, Procter and Gamble has implemented CPFR not only with some of its retail customers, but also with its suppliers, and even inside the company, between functions and divisions. (Sheffi, 2002) Standard CPFR Trading Partner Processes Source:  ©2008 Hypatia Research, LLC. (Collaborative Planning,Forecasting Replenishment CPFR) CPFR: Key Tenets The consumer is the ultimate focus of all efforts Buyers (retailers) and sellers (manufacturers) collaborate at every level Joint forecasting and order planning reduces surprises in the supply chain The timing and quantity of physical flows is synchronized across all parties Promotions no longer serve as disturbances in the supply chain Exception management is systemized (Edward, 2003) CPFR Process Model: The CPFR reference model provides a framework for planning, forecasting and replenishment process. Figure below represents the framework components. A buyer and a seller work as Collaboration Partners and work together to satisfy the customer demand which at the centre of the model. http://www.sql-server-performance.com/admin/article_images_new/2008_images/BI_Collaborative_Planning_Forecasting_Replenishment/Image1.jpg The key CPFR activities to enhance performance of Collaboration partners are 1.  Strategy Planning Establish the rules for collaborative relationship. Determine the product mix and develop event plans for the period. 2.  Demand and Supply Management Project consumer (POS) demand, as well as order and shipment requirements over the planning period. 3.  Execution Place orders, prepare and deliver shipments, receive and stock products in retail stores, record sales transactions and make payments. 4.  Analysis Monitor planning and execution activities for exception conditions. Aggregate results and calculate KPIs. Share insights and adjust plans for better performance. (www.ncsm.edu) CPFR Tasks in Detail: To understand in greater detail what businesses and their trading partners need to plan as part of their collaboration activities we need to analyze the tasks under each of the four identified Collaboration Activities.   The collaborations tasks and their mapping to collaboration activities is given in the table below CPFR Activity Task Mapping: CPFR Activity CPFR Task Trading Partners Strategy Planning Collaboration Arrangement Joint Business Plan Manufacturer, Retailer Demand Supply Management Sales Forecasting Order Planning/Forecasting Manufacturer, Retailer Execution Order Generation Order Fulfillment Manufacturer, Retailer Analysis  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Exception Management Performance Assessment Manufacturer, Retailer (www.12manage.com) (www.ncsm.edu) CPFR in Action Organizations can begin with successful CPFR with cooperation and timely plans. This combined approach helps all the trading partners such as retailers and manufacturers to unite in a formal agreement to perform the supply chain processes and establish a joint business plan. The CPFR softwares enables manufacturers, distributors and retailers to make the right decision about the material, stock and other resources required before placing the final order. CPFR is one of the powerful tools as it supports the whole supply chain process followed by nine steps defined as: (Edward, 2003) Phase I Planning In this phase, the emphasis is on developing element of trust between the people so that they give devoted work at different stages and processes. All types of barrier should be removed by the companys top management such as cultural barriers so that employees may feel comfortable working with them and will remain motivated towards their task performance. Firstly, the trading partners must clearly share their identities and processes in order to make a stronger bond between them, thus, the strong relationship will later help in setting a standard benchmark with mutual acceptance making more chances to be successful in achieving their organization targets. (Edward, 2003) There are two major steps that make up a front-end agreement and a joint business plan. Step 1: Developing Collaboration Agreement The Business Intelligence modules allow partners to define and measure specific KPIs. Web Planning ensures that all partners have access to the information simultaneously, while the Portal makes all the data and information visible across the supply chain. (Edward, 2003) The buyers and sellers must agree on the objectives of collaboration, ground rules, for resolving disagreements, confidentiality of information to be shared, sales forecast exception criteria, review cycle, time frame, and frozen time period with acceptable tolerance, financial incentives and success metrics. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Step 2: Crafting a Joint Business Plan A joint business plan is developed by sharing the companies business strategies and plans. The plan typically involves developing a joint product category and promotional plan in which the appropriate category strategies inventory policies, promotional activities, and pricing policies are specified. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) The front-end agreement should produce a long-term pact spanning the life of the business. Obviously, an enormous amount of information will flow between partners. Who should get what? When? Where? How much should they get (Edward, 2003) Phase II Forecasting The J.D. Edwards CPFR solution begins with a collaborative forecast of end-user demand and continues through all aspects of supply chain planning, providing support for both long-term and day-to-day decisions. In Phase II, an organization creates the sales forecast, which then feeds into the order forecast. (Edward, 2003) Step 3: Forecasting Sales Using the Demand Forecasting application, organizations can build multi-dimensional models, which may include product hierarchies, geographies, channels, and specific customers. Causal variables such as pricing, promotions, and new store openings can also be completely integrated. In addition, historical data can be combined with near real-time variations in the channel to get the most accurate forecast. (Edward, 2003) Either partner or both partners may generate the sales forecast. The forecasting techniques used can be qualitative or quantitative. When both partners each generate a forcast, middleware is used to highlight the difference, based on predetermined exception criteria previously agreed upon by the partners. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Steps 4 and 5: Collaborating to Develop a Shared Forecast Beginning with Demand Forecastings statistical forecast, users can make changes to an existing forecast or import their own forecast based on the most up-to-date information. Multiple forecasts can be reconciled using a powerful algorithm that takes into account the historical accuracy of different forecast contributors. Exceptions are easily identified and messages are sent to reconcile unusual items. Examples of sales forecast exception criteria are: retail in stock is less then 95 %, sales forecast error is greater the 20 %, the difference in sales forecast from the same period of the previous year is greater then 10%, or any changes that have occurred in timing of promotional active stores, The real-time joint decision making reduces the risk increase the confidence in the single forecast. (Wisner, Tan, Leong, 2008) Each contributor (partner, supplier, and customer) becomes an integral part of the real-time collaborative process. The final enterprise forecast is the combination of the most accurate and timely information available. (Edward, 2003) Step 6: Forecasting Orders The order forecast relies on point-of-sale (POS) data, causal information, and inventory strategies to generate a specific forecast that supports the shared sales forecast. Actual volume numbers are time-phased and reflect inventory objectives sorted by product and receiving location. The order forecast allows the manufacturer to allocate production capacity against demand while minimizing safety stock. J.D. Edwards supports this process by systematically aligning production capacity and scheduling items to give retailers increased confidence that orders will be delivered. With Production and Distribution Planning, it is possible to break down the sales forecast by sales period, sales region, and to more specific levels, such as individual stores. The order forecast integrates the sales forecast with order requirements to develop specific demand at retail level. Production and Distribution Planning ensures that the right product is built and delivered to the right aisle of the right store at the right time. In turn, Production and Distribution Planning works with Production Scheduling, breaking down production requirements on a daily or even hourly basis to ensure that the correct capacity and throughput are optimized to fill the necessary order. Operating through real-time collaboration reduces the uncertainty between trading partners and leads to consolidated supply chain inventories. Inventory levels are decreased, customer responsiveness is increased, and a platform for continual improvement among trading partners is established. (Edward, 2003) Steps 7 and 8: Identifying and Resolving Exceptions Identifying exceptions, determines what items fall outside the order forecast constraints established by the partners. The result is a list of exception items that are identified using the criteria established in the front-end agreement. Step eight, resolving exceptions, involves the process of investigating order forecast exceptions by querying shared data and submitting results to changes in the order forecast. Once again, the guidelines set down in the front-end agreement (or negotiations among partners) determine how those exceptions are resolved. (Edward, 2003) Phase III Executing During the final CPFR phase, front-end planning and forecasting come together with supply chain execution. Through J.D. Edwards collaborative CPFR solution, the order is generated and committed to delivery, enabling successful order delivery execution. Step 9: Generating Orders The final step in the CPFR process is generating the order and promising the delivery. The essence of maintaining positive relationships with partners and customers is to deliver on promises. Order Promising tags inventory (or raw materials) and addresses production schedules and transportation constraints to ensure that the product is ready when needed. Using Order Promising, companies can instantly determine where orders can best be satisfied from inventory at any location, planned production orders, or purchase receipts. When there is a promotion (such as a new store opening or product launch), Order Promising allows companies to quote future delivery dates or other key information related to the event. (Edward, 2003) Step 10: Executing to the CPFR Plan Although order generation is the ninth and final step of the formal CPFR model, the process doesnt end there. In effect, there is a tenth step involving execution of the order. This is where J.D. Edwards distinguishes itself. Once CPFR planning is complete, the model can feed data directly into J.D. Edwards Supply Chain Execution applications. Manufacturing, warehousing, order fulfillment, and transportation plans are completely synchronized into an integrated package to monitor and ensure on-time execution of the order delivery process. (Edward, 2003) Conclusion: Proper demand forecasting enables better planning and utilization of resources for business to be competitive. Forecasting is an integral part of demand management since it provides an estimate of the future demand and the basis for planning and making sound business decisions. A mismatch in supply and demand could result in excessive inventory and stock outs and loss of profit and goodwill. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are available to help companies forecast demand better. Since forecasts are seldom completely accurate, management must monitor forecast errors and make the necessary improvement to the forecasting process. Forecast made in isolation tend to be inaccurate. Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment are an approach is which companies work together to develop mutually agreeable plans and take responsibility for their actions. The objectives of CPFR is to optimize the supply chain by generating a consensus demand forecast, delivering the right product at the right time to the right location, reducing inventories, avoiding stock outs, and improving customer services. Major corporations such as Wall-Mart, Warner-Lambert, and Proctor Gamble are early adopters of CPFR. Although the benefits of CPFR are well recognized, wide spread adoption has not materialized.